Since the development of new corona infections in the respective travel areas will be a special priority for vacation planning in Croatia in 2021, SeaHelp has already prepared the 7-day incidence for Croatia and the 14-day incidence for Croatia in tables and diagrams on a daily basis and published them on the homepage. The values come from the figures of the Croatian Ministry of Health and are updated daily between 10:00 h and 14:00 h.
To allow Austrians and Germans to compare incidence
In the past, especially for vacationers from the countries of Germany, Austria and Switzerland, the figures from Croatia did not always immediately provide the values with which potential Croatia vacationers are familiar in their home countries. In Germany, for example, the reference value is the 7-day incidence, as the total number of new infections with the coronavirus within seven days per 100,000 inhabitants. Austria tends to use the 14-day incidence.
The ultimate aim of the values is to provide interested vacationers with robust comparisons that enable them to assess the risk of coronavirus infection for themselves. There, as communicated by many Croatian sources, the exclusive number of new infections with the coronavirus is not sufficient, this number can only be meaningful if it is put in relation to the number of inhabitants of the respective area.
Incidence values in Croatia by county/district
In Croatia, areas are divided into individual counties, roughly comparable to governmental districts in other countries. If the official Croatian figures differ slightly from our own calculations, it is because the last census in Croatia was conducted in 2011. In 2018, only an estimate of the population in the respective counties was made. When sifting through the numerical material, it was noticeable: Croatia chose the higher value from the census and the estimate for the calculation of the incidence figures in each case. These calculations nevertheless refer to the officially communicated incidence figures.
Detecting trends in 7-day incidence and 14-day incidence
The trends in 14-day incidence in Croatia compared with 7-day incidence are particularly interesting to observe: they clearly indicate a trend, and it is currently downward in almost all counties.
7-day incidence Istria: 13.9 (as of Feb. 15, 2021)
But another trend is also holding up permanently: the coastal regions from Istria to Dubrovnik, i.e., the preferred vacation destinations of Croatian holidaymakers, have been bravely resisting coronavirus infection in recent months, especially the northernmost tip of Istria. Here, the 7-day incidence is currently 13.9 (as of Feb. 15, 2021). Values from which many other European regions are still far away.
Data analysis: Sea-Help Ltd | Data source: koronavirus.hr
Distinguishing major cities from coastal regions is important
However, to correctly interpret the incidence values from Croatia published daily now, one thing should be taken into account: In densely populated coastal regions such as Rijeka, Sibenik, Zadar, or Split, the values must inevitably be higher, as in almost every other major city in Europe, than in more sparsely populated areas of Croatia that are particularly characterized by tourism. This means, for example: High incidence figures in Primorje-Gorski Kotar County originate in most cases in Rijeka, while on the island of Krk, for example, the incidence of infection with coronavirus is at quite a low level.
Partial travel warnings for Croatia long overdue
In general, however, these data, which refer to the counties, should also help to increase public pressure on those responsible in the respective governments and ultimately lead to not lumping an entire country together, but to differentiate regionally and to issue travel warnings only partially, as in the summer of 2020. Then Croatia’s coastal regions would already be a travel destination again.