Climate phenomenon with global consequences: “El Niño” could disrupt weather in 2026 – including on the Adriatic?

The weather phenomenon “El Niño” is considered one of the most powerful climate drivers on Earth. There is currently much to suggest that a particularly strong event could develop again in 2026 – with consequences that Europe’s water sports enthusiasts are likely to feel as well.

El Niño describes an unusual warming of the ocean surface in the tropical Pacific. This causes wind currents, precipitation patterns, and storm zones to shift around the world. The phenomenon occurs irregularly every two to seven years and influences weather patterns across the globe.

What causes El Niño? In short – it results from an interplay between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific, causing the normal wind system over the Pacific to fall out of balance. Under normal conditions, strong trade winds blow from South America toward Australia and Indonesia, pushing warm surface water westward.

There – off the coast of Indonesia, for example – unusually warm water accumulates as a result. Off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, on the other hand, cold, nutrient-rich deep water rises to the surface. This process is called “upwelling” and normally produces relatively cool sea temperatures and fish-rich waters in that region.

During El Niño, the trade winds weaken significantly – with severe consequences

During El Niño, however, these trade winds weaken considerably – sometimes even partially reversing direction. As a result, the warm water can no longer be pushed westward as usual. Instead, it spreads back toward the central and eastern Pacific.

The consequences: The ocean surface off South America warms unusually strongly, cold deep water rises far less effectively, atmospheric pressure and precipitation zones shift, and enormous amounts of energy are released into the atmosphere.

This alters the so-called Walker Circulation – a tropical wind system running along the equator. Because the ocean and atmosphere are closely coupled, these changes ultimately affect specific weather patterns worldwide.

The US weather authority NOAA considers the phenomenon highly likely this year

According to current forecasts from the US weather authority National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now a very high probability that another El Niño event will develop during 2026. Several models, according to the US National Weather Service Organization in Silver Spring, Maryland, even consider an exceptionally strong “Super El Niño” possible, as the agency announced through its Climate Prediction Center.

“There is a 98 percent probability of El Niño conditions later this year,” said NOAA chief Neil Jacobs, according to a recent report by The Guardian dated 21 May 2026. (ENSO Forecast)

Experts agree that the impacts on Europe are considerably harder to predict than for the Pacific region or North America; however, meteorologists emphasize that strong El Niño years are often associated with more extreme weather patterns, longer heat periods, and more unstable heavy rainfall events across Europe.

Water sports enthusiasts on the Adriatic should stay alert – weather could change faster than usual and be more severe

Water sports enthusiasts on the Adriatic in particular should therefore remain vigilant. While El Niño does not directly trigger “tropical storms” in that region, typical weather patterns could still intensify. Experts anticipate longer heat phases in the Mediterranean area, higher water temperatures, and greater energy in the atmosphere. This increases the regional risk of sudden thunderstorm cells, heavy rainfall events, downdrafts, and short-notice storm events.

For skippers in Croatia, Italy, or Montenegro, this means above all: weather windows could become shorter, and thunderstorm fronts could develop more rapidly than usual. Particularly during the summer months, local Bora or Jugo conditions could prove significantly more severe and harder to predict than in previous seasons. So-called “Medicanes” – Mediterranean storm systems with partly tropical characteristics – are also being discussed in connection with increasingly warm Mediterranean temperatures (SeaHelp has reported on this).

The impacts on Europe do exist, but are “complex and difficult to predict precisely,” according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an independent organization supported by 35 countries. Current ECMWF seasonal forecast for El Niño (NINO3-4)

SeaHelp tip: “Classic seamanship” helps – combined with all the modern tools available on board

Tip: Water sports enthusiasts should therefore plan for increased short-notice weather changes in 2026. Modern weather apps are useful aids, but they alone are often not sufficient. Many experienced Adriatic skippers would be well advised to rely more heavily on “classic seamanship” again: departing early, conducting more frequent weather checks, and above all: more conservative passage planning and larger safety margins when selecting anchorages and planning legs.

Even in the DACH region, El Niño could have noticeable consequences. Meteorologists consider above-average warm periods, hot and dry summer spells, and more frequent heavy rainfall events to be possible here. In the Alpine region in particular, concern is growing over local storms, hail events, and flooding following intense rainfall. At the same time, low water levels in rivers could once again affect inland navigation.

One thing is clear, however: El Niño is not a precise weather timetable. Even strong events do not automatically produce the same impacts everywhere. But the combination of global warming and a potential Super El Niño is currently causing many climate researchers to take notice.

“A Super El Niño is becoming increasingly likely and could be record-breakingly strong,” wrote Jonathan Erdman in the US publication weather.com / The Weather Channel on 8 May 2026; over the course of this year it could become “one of the strongest events ever recorded.”